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Gritton has updated http://www.backtest.org with the Ughly Months. Personally, I would rather act like on ostrich.
I’ve added the recent unpleasantness to backtest.org, and unpleasant is it. The default run is still through 2007 because the year isn’t over yet, but you can peek at the damage September and October have done if you so choose.
The [...]
Screen rankings as of 03NOV08. Standard disclaimers apply
Quantitative Tactical Asset Allocation
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461
EFA GSG IEF IVV IYR %Cash
10.31.08 no no no no no 100
10.24.08 no no yes no no [...]
I normally do not publish the Arezi Ratio. It just that it recommends that one actually use margin! To me this should suggest a runaway bull with cash flowing out of savings and treasuries.
Personally I don’t buy it. I think we have an out of sample situation with the Government mucking with market forces.
* [...]
I don’t know if I will carry QTAA. However in this market, I find it interesting. –msg
Quantitative Tactical Asset Allocation
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461
EFA GSG IEF IVV IYR %Cash
10.24.08 no no yes no no [...]
Screen rankings as of 27OCT08. Standard disclaimers apply
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